When it comes to energy sources, year after year, public opinion polling consistently shows Canadians choosing to invest in renewable energy over oil and gas. At the same time, when it comes to economic growth, particularly as Canada faces a trade war with the United States, Canadians increasingly believe that the oil and gas industry and infrastructure are crucial to the country’s economy.
This contradiction is not surprising. While there is increased anxiety over climate impacts—to be expected given the wildfires we continue to face—support for climate policy is in decline as affordability and the economy rise as top concerns. With the expansion of oil and gas being proposed as one way to help the Canadian economy and sovereignty, many are buying into that idea. Almost nine in ten Canadians currently rate the industry as important, and seven in ten see it as important for our future economy—up 11 percentage points since 2024.
Climate Literacy Gap: Few Connect Oil and Gas to Emissions
The largest source of emissions in Canada is oil and gas. A persistent barrier in elevating climate literacy and action is the fact that most people are unaware that fossil fuels need to be phased out if we are to avoid even more catastrophic climate impacts than the wildfires of this summer and the past several years.
Underlying the tension between concern over climate impacts and increasing support for the oil and gas industry is the fact that just under half of Canadians identify “burning fossil fuels” as the source of pollution most responsible for climate change, even when prompted with a list of options. And only 63 percent of Canadians believe climate change is mostly human-caused.
Disinformation Is Shaping Public Opinion
Another factor is disinformation. Oil and gas exports are often promoted as contributing to global climate progress if they can be produced in a “clean way” and displace coal power, although such claims are highly contested. The International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Scenario report shows there cannot be new fossil fuel projects if we are to keep warming to manageable levels (1.5C), regardless of technology. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Production Gap report highlights that countries, including Canada, have plans to expand fossil fuel production to levels that would result in 110 percent more emissions than the 1.5C warming threshold allows for.
The idea that oil and gas is needed for the economy and jobs is repeated by industry and government proponents. This makes it challenging for people to see beyond the entrenched nature of fossil fuels in our economy and the power and influence of the fossil fuel industry to a different economic alternative. For example, a recent Environics Research (2025) survey shows that economic motivations are now driving strong support for the oil sands (62 percent) and there is a surge in backing for new pipelines to the West and East coasts (73 percent). Not surprising given 72 percent of the public believe it is possible to build them and still meet emission reduction targets. Canadians are not alone when it comes to weak support for addressing the root source of the climate crisis. In a global survey conducted by Potential Energy, phasing out fossil fuels ranked at the bottom of a list of 19 policy solutions.
Canadians Oppose Public Subsidies for Oil and Gas
Even if Canadians believe oil and gas are important for the economy, what they don’t support and haven’t for some time is having taxpayers subsidize the industry. New oil and gas infrastructure is being proposed as part of nation-building, yet most people want to see other needs, such as healthcare and education, prioritized with public dollars instead. A point that decision makers don’t seem to yet be heeding.
What Climate Communicators Can Do Next
So what can climate communicators do about these challenges?
- First, don’t stop talking about climate change. Yes, issues such as affordability and the economy are top of mind, but it’s also worth noting that concern about extreme weather is high, and there remains space for dialogue about its impacts.
- Start with the immediate impacts being faced, such as wildfires, and link these impacts to the root cause of the problem—fossil fuels—and the need to stop expanding oil and gas so even greater risks are not locked in.
- Remind decision-makers and Canadians that disagreements over oil and gas projects tore us apart in the past, and will not bring us together now at a time when unity is critical. There is agreement, however, when it comes to expanding renewable energy, improving the energy grid, and investing in community infrastructure that can protect us from and better endure more extreme climate impacts.
- Finally, call on political leaders to respect public sentiment. Rather than leaving Canadians between a rock and a hard place when it comes to concerns about climate change and support for oil and gas, responsible leadership requires opening a conversation about what nation-building can look like that is centred around the safety of communities, the climate and future economy versus the interests of the fossil fuel industry.
Cara Pike is Re.Climate’s Senior Advisor and the founder and executive director of Climate Access, a non-profit focused on building political and public support for climate action. Cara is a pioneer and leading thinker in climate communications. She regularly advises government agencies and nonprofit organizations.
